Mr CFC Science applies his mighty brain to the conundrum of Chelsea’s performances in November – do the stats really bear out the aphorism “Remember, remember, we’re shit in November”?
“Remember, remember, we’re shit in November” goes the saying. I’m not sure who coined it (I think Stamford Chidge makes a claim) but is it true? For sure, we’ve had some pretty bad results during this month, but we’ve had some good ones too, especially in European competitions. As far as I know, nobody has actually looked at the stats on this. You know, data and numbers and so on. So, what are the facts of the situation? Are we actually worse than normal during the month of November?
I’ve collated our results in each month for the last six seasons. This goes back to King Carlo’s last season in charge and so it includes contributions from Villas Boas, One Di Matteo, the FSW, the whole of José’s second stint and Guus Hiddink’s attempt to pick up the pieces. There’s no particular reason for choosing this time period, except that my gut feeling was that it seemed long enough without being too long.
Some background against which the month-by-month numbers can be compared. Overall, in the last six seasons we have played 227 league games, won 123 of them, and collected 425 league points. That becomes a win percentage of 54.2% and an average of 1.9 points per game, which is pretty respectable.
But how do Novembers compare? On the face of it, the results are brutal. Over those six years, we have had a league win percentage of 35% and have gained only 1.4 points per game. We really might be shit in November! In fact, looking at the chart to the right, it’s easy to see that we’re much worse in November than at any time during the main part of the season.
But, looking at the details, a slightly more nuanced picture emerges. In particular, we have had one quite spectacular November: In 2014, in José’s (second!) second season, we played four league games, winning three and drawing the other. And in 2011 under AVB we gained a respectable six points from three games. (However, the other match was a particularly galling 2-1 home reverse to Liverpool.)
Those are the league results, but we typically play several European games and maybe some League Cup fixtures during November as well. We’ve played 13 November cup games during those six years and won seven of them (54%), so adding them in to the stats sees our overall win percentage increase to 42%.
So, the numbers back up the saying, but I think there is one particular year which set the narrative. The start of the 2012-13 season was a strange time. Robbie Di Matteo (chap!) had won the European Cup the summer before, and so the mood was massively jubilant. The season started well, and through August, September and October we won seven of our first eight league games, drawing the other. Then, on October 28th, we lost at home to Manchester United, and went on to draw four and lose on
e game in November of that year. Satisfaction is the difference between expectation (which was huge) and reality (which was pretty stodgy). The rot had set in and the narrative of the shit November was established. To add insult to injury, Robbie was sacked late in the month and the nightmare of the Rafa era began. I think you could make the case that this was the worst month for Chelsea FC since Roman took over, and it was a November!
But what about other months? Are there any times of year when we’re unusually good or bad? Well, it turns out that the month of May is just as bad as November. In fact, the two main stats are exactly the same: A league win percentage of 35% and an average 1.4 points per game. And, interestingly, if you include cup games, February becomes pretty bad as well, with only a 45% win rate.
Perhaps surprisingly, it turns out that we are truly exceptional in August. Overall league win percentage of 74% and 2.4 points per game. Also April tends to be very good, winning 70% of league games (although only 59% of all games).
So, in summary perhaps a more statistically accurate statement is that we’re shit in November about two thirds of the time. But when we are bad, we can be truly awful! To be h
onest, I was pretty surprised by this. My hunch before doing the numbers was that the curse of November was a bit of a myth. I thought that, if anything, we had a habit of being a bit worse in December. But the numbers totally don’t bear that out.
But as any financial adviser will tell you, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And this year, with Don Conte in charge, Eden Hazard back to his sizzling best, and Diego Costa banging in goals for fun, things look pretty good again. As for the rest of this month, it’s going to be defined by the Tottenham match and that really could go either way. They will be itching to beat us and if that happens then November will have been a bad month! On the other hand, if we win that fixture then we’ll be looking really good.
But either way: win or lose, up the Blues!
By @CFCScience
